Could Greece Leave the Euro?

Could Greece Leave the Euro?

I wanted to bring to your attention a Business Insider article written by Mike Bird entitledHere’s What Happens if Greece is Force Out of the Euro.” It discusses the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro, given the financial situation that Greece is facing. Among some of the points made are the following: 

The author cites probability figures (by companies such as Morgan Stanley) given the likelihood of the Greek government accepting the conditions, implementing capital controls, and leaving the Euro. For example, according to Morgan Stanley, 


  • “Greece eventually goes back to the bailout programme: 55% likelihood. In this scenario Greece gets no haircut on its debts (which the government wants), it gets its international funding but also has to implement continued austerity and economic reforms.
  • Greece has a “staycation”: 25% likelihood. This would mean Greece implements capital controls – strict rules that halt the outflows of money from banks – like Cyprus did during its 2013 crisis. 
  • Greece leaves the eurozone: 20% likelihood. Without European assistance, the life support Greece’s banks are on is pulled away. It’s hard to say exactly what the risk of a Greek banking collapse is to the rest of Europe” (Bird, 2015)

The article also discusses what would happen if Greece were to leave the Euro. While the EU would be on the hook for much of the debt, many argue that long-term, Greece would not only be able to do it, but some argue that it might be in their interest to do so. The article also raises the issue of Greece leaving the EU with regards to other financially troubled EU states.

I recommend reading the article, as it offers a great discussion about the possible scenarios that Greece could face. 


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